In the near term, the pandemic and the resulting economic slowdown will result in lower demand. In the longer term, with additional growth in the agricultural sector, an increase in residential consumption and steady growth in the industrial sector, demand will rebound and eventually outpace the 2019 forecast.
Seasonal Peak Demand
In the mid 2020s, the scheduled retirement of Pickering Nuclear Generating Station will reduce Ontario’s installed nuclear capacity by 3.1 GW. By the end of the outlook, a total of 8.4 GW of nuclear capacity would have been refurbished and over 21 GW of existing contracts/commitments would have reached expiry.
Installed Capacity by Contract/Commitment Type
Annual capacity auctions are providing a cost-effective platform for various types of resources to compete to provide capacity in the short term. In cases where there is not yet sufficient competition and a resource is critical to ensuring reliability, the IESO will look at interim measures and be guided by its resource adequacy framework.
Summer Capacity Surplus/Deficit, without Continued Availability of Existing Resources
The IESO is continuing discussions with stakeholders to provide more clarity about capacity needs and how they will be met. Efforts are also underway to enable a broader range of resources to participate, which will facilitate innovation and drive down costs through increased competition.
Options Available to Meet Summer Needs
Transmission upgrades will help reduce location-specific capacity needs, including in southwest Ontario where capacity needs are increasing due to strong agricultural growth. Participating in regional planning engagements will help stakeholders understand and contribute to discussions on new and emerging needs across the province, and help them explore solutions that reflect community preferences and goals.
Summer Capacity Needs, including Locational Requirements
