IESO Reliability Outlook: Modest Short-Term Demand Growth Forecasted
March 20, 2026
Ontario’s electricity grid is prepared for the next 18 months, with sufficient supply expected to be available to meet the needs of residents, businesses and communities, according to the IESO’s latest Reliability Outlook (RO). While long-term growth is expected to remain strong, as represented by the electrification of the transportation and industrial sectors, this Outlook reflects continued demand uncertainty as ongoing trade disruptions weigh on economic growth. Electricity demand is expected to modestly grow over the RO period, with a projected increase of approximately 0.9 per cent for each of 2026 and 2027.
For this Reliability Outlook period, which includes Pickering coming offline for refurbishment – pending final approval by the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission – Ontario’s electricity system is expected to remain adequate owing to gas plant upgrades as well as more new battery storage projects procured through the Expedited Long-Term RFP that are scheduled to come online.
This edition of the Reliability Outlook – which was streamlined at the beginning of last quarter – is the first under this condensed format in which only the data tables have been released. Insights into demand trends and other updates will return in the next RO, following a pattern of alternating quarters that was established with the Q4 2025 Reliability Outlook.
Under periods of tighter supply conditions, planned generator maintenance outages are difficult to schedule. Generators are advised not to schedule outages during periods when reserves are forecast to be low and are strongly encouraged to plan and co-ordinate the timing of outages with IESO staff.
For the full Reliability Outlook, visit the IESO’s website.