POWER OUTLOOK: SPRING 2013
Issued: May 2, 201318-Month Outlook

Ontario expects to have an adequate supply of electricity during the summer of 2013 under both normal and extreme weather conditions. This summer's peak demand forecast is 25,430 MW, which is lower than the peak demand forecast for the summer of 2012. Peak demand is expected to be lower as any underlying population growth and economic expansion will be more than offset by the increase in embedded generation and conservation initiatives. Over the longer term, energy demand is forecast to decrease by 0.6% in 2013.

The IESO is expecting more than 3,200 MW of renewable capacity to be connected to the transmission system, including Ontario’s first two transmission grid-connected solar projects in Haldimand County and Elgin County in the next 18 months. Preparations for these changes began several years ago, and are now starting to yield results in the areas of forecasting and visibility. The next element - dispatch of grid-connected renewable resources - is planned to be in place within the forecast period, and will give the IESO a necessary tool to help manage the system efficiently and reliably.

Progress continues to be made in removing coal-fired generation from the supply mix in Ontario. The remaining generating units at Lambton and Nanticoke are scheduled to stop burning coal by the end of 2013 and the conversion of Atikokan generating station from a coal-fired unit to biomass is underway, with the unit expected to be in service by the third quarter of 2014.

DEMAND OUTLOOK - SPRING 2013

DEMAND FORECAST Seasonal Normal Weather Peak 21,186 MW Extreme Weather Peak 24,621 MW

Demand Forecast

The mid-term forecasts contained in the Power Outlooks are determined based on econometric models and weather scenarios. These forecasts are superseded by nearer-term forecasts that are used in the operation of the power grid, and employ similar-day scenarios. Each day's projected peak is posted on the Price and Demand page.

SUPPLY OUTLOOK - SPRING 2013

	AVAILABLE GENERATION DURING SEASONAL PEAK (week of June 17) Total Installed Resources 36,358 MW Outages or other reductions in capacity 6,827 MW   Demand Response 936 MW Total Available Resources 30,467 MW
Matching Supply and Demand The resource scenario shown above incorporates planned outages that generators have requested in order to perform maintenance on their equipment. Should the IESO determine that there is a potential reliability concern due to a generator outage, the outage co-ordination process allows for the IESO to reject or recall outages. In addition, Ontario has the capability to import electricity.
These supply forecasts are superseded by nearer-term forecasts, that are available 34 days before the day-at-hand.